The much talked about Major Winter Storm has arrived. We are on the warm/rainy side, this means little to no snow, but a lot of rain and wind.
Storm Summary and Timeline:
Rain -
Light rain starts this afternoon between 3-6pm. Periods of steady rain between 6-9pm. There will be some embedded heavier downpours after 9pm until around 6am Friday morning. Another round of heavy rain will develop ahead of the arctic front Friday between 11am-2pm. Rainfall will be on the order of 1.5 to 3" which can cause some minor basement flooding and poor drainage flooding.
Winds -
Winds will pickup on the order of 35-45mph later this evening.
After midnight winds will gust between 45-65mph with the highest winds in the heaviest downpours. This type of wind will cause some tree damage and scattered power outages
The winds will taper a bit back down to 35-45mph gusts for Friday morning as temps start to drop from the 50s to the 40s.
Between 12-4pm as a strong Arctic front approaches and moves through winds will switch from SE to SW and gust as high as 45-65mph once again, this change in wind direction may cause more widespread tree damage and power outages.
Temperatures -
Temps will rise from the 30s this afternoon to the 40s this evening, then 50s overnight. By daybreak Friday temperatures will slowly fall back in the 40s ahead of the arctic front.
Between 2-4pm temperatures will drop rapidly from the 40s into the 20s, then teens by the evening with wind chills well below zero. The cold will persist through Christmas Day with highs between 15-25 degrees Saturday and Sunday, lows between 5-15 above zero and wind chills well below zero at times.
Flash freeze and potential snow squalls-
As the precipitation winds down between 12-2pm Friday (potentially as a snow squall in some spots) temperatures will be above freezing. However, any moisture/water left behind as temperatures rapidly drop below zero will freeze, we can see what is called a flash freeze, where all wet surfaces freeze within minutes. There is a low probability of this occurring before roadways parking lots and sidewalks dry up (about 25%). The forecast currently is for most of the wet surfaces to dry from the windy conditions before the freeze moves in.
As the cold settles in some scattered snow showers are possible, up to a coating is possible in any heavier snow squall across the state. A rare ocean effect snow band is possible over New London county Friday evening as a very cold SW wind over the warmer ocean may produce a band of light to moderate snow over SE CT.
Finally coastal flooding is likely along waterfront properties.
A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the entire shoreline. The statement is posted at the bottom of this blog.
Below are some storm images for each stage of the storm.
Be Safe, Merry Christmas Happy Holidays.
Images ...
The leading edge of the extreme cold moving quickly through the US. Entering the Western Great Lakes at 1pm EST Thursday.
Rain starting in SW CT after 3pm ...
Areas of heavy rain after 11pm...
First bout of potentially damaging winds between 3-6am
Second bout of damaging winds between 12-4pm.
High temperatures will be met around 5am Friday
Wind chills will be 10 to 20 degrees below zero later Friday night.
Temperatures are forecast to drop 20-30 degrees between 12-3pm Friday.
Scattered snow showers may transition to a steady band of ocean effect snow over New London County late Friday with some plowable accumulation possible. Isolated coatings of snow are possible statewide Friday late afternoon and evening from snow squalls.
* WHAT...One to two and a half feet, locally three feet of
inundation above ground level expected in vulnerable areas
near the waterfront and shoreline.
* WHERE...In Connecticut, Southern Fairfield, Southern New
Haven, Southern Middlesex and Southern New London Counties. In
New York, Southern Westchester County.
* WHEN...From 8 AM to 1 PM EST Friday.
* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Widespread moderate to localized major
flooding of vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline
is becoming likely, with 1 to 2 1/2 feet, locally 3 ft, of
inundation above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas.
This would result in numerous road closures and cause
widespread flooding of low lying property including parking
lots, parks, lawns and homes/businesses with basements near
the waterfront. A few buildings and homes near the waterfront
could experience flooding. Vehicles parked in vulnerable areas
near the waterfront will likely become flooded. Flooding could
also extend inland from the waterfront along tidal rivers and
bays.
* SHORELINE IMPACTS...3 to 5 ft breaking waves, particularly
facing Central and Eastern Long Island Sound, will result in
beach erosion and erosion of dune structures. Wave splashover
of dune structures and bulkheads is possible in spots, which
would cause flooding of roadways and vulnerable structures
behind protective structures and locally major inundation
impacts.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The potential for locally major flooding
on Friday morning will depend on the direction and strength of
winds through the time of high tide. This will be refined over
the next 24 hours.
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